Form and Condition

FORM: The patterns of form produced by many horses are regular and predictable. After a spell of a couple of months or more, they take two or three runs to get fit, return their best rating from the past - their peak rating - at their fourth or fifth run in and then maintain that rating or improve on it over the next three or four starts. After this their form begins to deteriorate and their ratings get lower and lower until they finally go out for another holiday in the spelling paddocks.
Although this is the average form pattern, there are countless exceptions to it. About one horse in ten produces its best form fresh. With the help of solid trackwork and a barrier trial or two, it wins first up and may even hold its form to win second up. After these exacting efforts and with more weight to carry, it cannot keep going. After three or four failures, out it goes to the paddocks to recover and return for another first up tilt.

This points to one of the most rewarding aspects of form analysis. Mature horses invariably follow the same form pattern preparation after preparation. They come to hand quickly or they need hard racing to reach their peak. The trainer knows when his horse performs best and does not change a winning formula. The one fact to remember here is that the older a horse gets, the less likely is it to go well fresh. You should also note that some horses thrive on racing and continue for long periods without a spell. A few of these are “dream” horses for the form analyst. They race week in and week out and keep returning the same ratings every start.

One of the most baffling problems for anyone who studies form patterns is the exceptional effort or freak run. For no apparent reason a horse suddenly returns a rating 8 or 9kg - or more - above anything achieved previously. Next start the “freak” horse returns its usual low rating and stops at that level. Often these exceptional efforts occur first up, giving strength to the much quoted saying “Never back a horse second up” When I suspect a freak run, I ignore it and assess the horse on its regular ratings.
With some horses there is no pattern at all to their form. They run well one day and shockingly the next. Their ratings fluctuate wildly. I approach such animals or “cats” with caution, penalising them for bad runs and, by taking off 2-3kg, never giving them the full value of their best efforts.

In general, I divide horses into two groups - those getting better and those getting worse. If a horse is getting better, I usually allow it further improvement and hand out a bonus of 1 - 3kg. Such horses are constantly exceeding their previous peak ratings.
If a horse is getting worse, I try to find out why. It may have been racing at a track or at a distance it did not like, in going it could not handle or in class that was too strong. It may have been unsuited by a slow pace or affected by excessive exertion like a hard first up run. It may have struck trouble in a race, slowly away, checked or blocked, forced very wide or badly ridden. And I always excuse a consistent horse just one bad run even if there is no explanation. But if I can find no reason for poor ratings, I penalise the horse 3 - 5kg. or even more. Horses that start getting worse, keep on getting worse.


CONSISTENCY: It is obvious that some horses are more consistent than others and it is self evident that it is more rewarding to back a reliable horse than an unreliable one. Consistent horses tend to win races while the inconsistent always seem to get beaten. As in all fields of endeavour, there are horses that are winners and others that are born losers.
A friend of mine bases his whole method of form analysis on consistency. He rates a horse on its winning percentage. According to him, a horse with 5 wins in 10 starts earns a much higher rating than a horse with 5 wins in 40 starts. He has a complicated system for awarding points to horses according to the class in which they have scored. The idea has merit. But like many punters my friend has become obsessed with one idea. He sees consistency ratings as a cure all and the easy way to backing winners. There is, of course, no easy way - and no easy solution to all the problems of race analysis. Yet consistent horses certainly deserve some bonus.

In general, I penalise by 1.5 - 3kg horses that are inconsistent or seem unable to win through lack of courage or tenacity in a finish. I give a bonus of 1.5 - 3kg to the courageous and consistent winner.


CONDITION: It is always difficult to decide how fit a horse is when it returns to racing after a spell. This applies particularly to young, lightly raced horses. But unless a horse has done plenty of hard trackwork and performed well in at least one barrier trial, it is unlikely to be fit enough for a top first up effort.

Unless a horse usually goes well fresh or has obviously been prepared for a first up win, I impose severe penalties for lack of condition. Unfit horses just cannot win. These penalties mean a deduction of from 3 - 13kg from a horse’s peak rating during its last preparation. On the average I find horses run 5 to 6 lengths below their best at their first run in from a spell.

When I use the term “spell”, I mean two or more months absence from racing. The longer the spell, the less chance there is of the horse being fit. I also impose a small penalty of 1.5 - 3kg on horses which have not started for four or five weeks unless their starts are usually well spaced. A few horses, like New Gem the first galloper I ever owned, cannot stand up to solid racing. They need three or four weeks between starts to allow them to recover. But most horses race regularly and frequently. If they have a break of four or five weeks, they have probably suffered a setback.

The form patterns of a horse are closely related to its condition. You should always check back to see how a horse has raced during its earlier preparations. How many runs does it need before it begins to show form? When does it reach its peak? How long does it stay at its peak? How quickly does it lose form? Is it affected by excessive exertion?
You should also check on its current racing and trackwork. How long has it been in work? How many starts has it had in barrier trials and races? Are its form and trackwork getting better or worse? Has it been in training too long? Your answers to these questions will help you pinpoint those horses whose condition is deteriorating and whose ratings will continue to decline.

These are just a few of the variable considerations when doing your ratings with Dataform.