Jockeys

Most punters place too much significance on a horse’s rider. I consider the effect a jockey has on his horse’s chances in two ways:

(i) Vigour and Balance. If two horses of equal ability and at equal weights were on equal terms as they entered the Randwick straight in a two horse race, and one was ridden by Darran Beadman and the other by an inexperienced apprentice with a 3kg allowance to compensate for this, I would expect Beadman’s mount to win by 2 or 2.5 lengths. Beadman would win because he can ride his mount out with great vigour, use the whip to maximum effect and maintain a perfect balance. The inexperienced apprentice would lack vigour and strength and would get unbalanced if he went for the whip. In other words, the 3kg allowance given to the apprentice is not enough to bring the two riders together. Beadman in terms of vigour and balance is 4 or 4.5 lengths superior. The 3kg allowance only serves to reduce this superiority to 2 or 2.5 lengths.

In order to grade Sydney jockeys and apprentices I keep a list, constantly updated, of all riders with their riding weights, their allowances (if any), and the penalties I deduct or the bonuses I add. For apprentices with an allowance the penalty is imposed on the actual weight carried - that is the handicapper’s weight less the allowance claimed. If a promising apprentice claims 3kg and I think he is worth a penalty of 3kg, the allowance is counter balanced by the penalty and I make no change to the horse’s present rating. If another apprentice with little ability claims 3kg, I may think him worth q 5kg penalty which makes the actual penalty imposed 2kg. My penalties for apprentices range from .5kg for an apprentice claiming 1.5kg and riding exceptionally well to 5kg for the boy who is raw and unknown. As an apprentice improves, so the penalty I impose is reduced. A boy who starts with a 5kg penalty may ride so brilliantly that in six months I have his penalty down to 1kg. Like horses, riders get better - or worse.
The Jockey list in Dataform should be outdated regularly. You should prepare your own list of jockeys and apprentices with the bonuses and penalties you think fair, keeping always within the range I suggested. On the list make a note of each jockey and apprentice’s current riding weight. This will help you to forecast the exact overweights and allowances which are not displayed officially until 15 minutes before starting time.

(ii) Riding Technique and Tactics in a Race. If a raw apprentice has to ride a horse which comes from the rear of the field especially at Canterbury or Warwick Farm, the horse will be at least two lengths worse off in terms of riding technique. Such a combination of horse and rider invariably strikes more trouble than “a celluloid cat in Hades”. If the same apprentice rides a noted front runner in a sprint at Canterbury, the horse will more than likely go straight to the rails and lead without effort or interference. In the first case a harsh penalty is required on the grounds of riding technique or lack of it. In the second there is no penalty.
I determine the penalties here after studying the post positions and working out how the race is likely to be run - which horses will vie for the lead, which will drop back to the rear and face the prospect of checks, blocks or wide running. My range of penalties is from 1 to 3kg.

Trainers

Like horses and riders, some trainers are better than others. But the trainers with most winners are not necessarily the best. A trainer who has 50 winners a year from 100 horses cannot compare with a trainer who has 20 winners a year from 10 horses. However, a stable that produces plenty of winners keeps producing them. Horses yet to win are trialled against winners. If they go well in these private gallops, they are backed with confidence. A horse from a good winner producing stable is entitled to a small bonus.
Trainers, of course, are often wrong in their opinions. They cannot afford the time needed for detailed form, class and weight analysis. They declare the horses that run a “shocker” and warn owners against others that win with the head on the chest. For this reason it is foolish to pay attention to betting drifts. Plenty of unfancied horses win at prices that are ridiculously liberal. Many of my biggest wins have been on horses whose chances the connections thought were hopeless. Even deliberate non triers have been known to get up.

All Trainer and Jockey ratings in Dataform are calculated by strike rates, imported from data at the Racing and Sports web site.