Getting Value.

For my money, there's no better place to hear the idiotic ideas and moronic mutterings of the masses than at the racetrack. You couldn't cover the dumb dialogue with 40 gallons of paint. That makes choosing a single stupid saying a difficult task. My favorite may be one I have heard uttered many times by media tipters, "Never let the prices of the horses affect your betting." That's almost too dumb to comprehend.

In terms of acceptability however, nothing beats the seemingly innocuous but fatally flawed, "Who do you like?" If there's one phrase that crystallizes the public's utter misunderstanding of the game, it's "Who do you like?"

I know several legitimate professional punters who earn a living betting on horses. Not one of them believes picking winners is the key to success.

Trying to pick the winner of the race is a hopeless strategy. The public is great at picking winners. The horse they pick, the favorite, wins more than any other horse. But you can never make a living betting that way. The key to the game is value.

It is a reverence for the concept of value that separates professional punters from the rest of the field.

Successful gambling is all about getting the best of it. That can happen because you're betting against other people, not the house. If the public makes an incorrect assessment of the horses, as frequently happens, you can get the best of it. Often that means betting on a horse who doesn't have the best chance of winning the race.

Of course, there are circumstances where the favorite is a very good bet but the key to winning is to pick a good bet, not bet a good pick. That's why "Who do you like?" is a worthless question. The real question is, "Who do I bet?"

Bookmakers and Punters

The best bookmakers are highly intelligent and successful businessmen. They work long hours, study the form thoroughly and are also quick thinking, able to react quickly without panic to changing circumstances. They enjoy a challenge but will not accept it if they believe the odds are poor value. They know that to win they must have an edge. This edge is having the ability to know when they have the advantage.

The average punter does not have the edge. It is impossible to have an edge betting from race to race on the spur of the moment. Just look at the number of punters now even betting on computerised phantom horse races at the TAB. It is impossible to get an edge. They must lose. There are punters who will go to casinos, play blackjack and count the cards. That is smart play. They have the edge. Then there are the majority of punters who will just sit down at the blackjack table and play. They will never have the edge and will be long term losers.

The important thing when you have the edge is the ability to use the information you have to predict the outcome more often than random chance will allow.

If the object of the game is to make money, then the way to do that is not by picking a winner. You can pick 40 percent winners but if they average only even money, you’re a loser. It’s all about value. You have to bet overlays, not make wagers on the most likely winner.

That is what the bookie does who spends hours studying form. That is what the professional punter does. That is not what your average punter does.

BEATING THE RACES

No matter how skilful you are in calculating future ratings or forecasting true odds, you must have loosing runs when everything goes against you. Your huge overlay bets go down in the last stride. The 2/1 chances you want to back are never better than 15/8; the 4/1 chances are never better than 15/4; the 6/1 chances are never better than 1.5; and the 8/1 chances are never better than 15/2. You miss dozens of winners by a centimetre or the turn of a knob. Your calculations are right but, because luck has deserted you, you think your calculations are wrong. You begin to doubt the value of past and future ratings and the overlay bet. Instead of thinking rationally, you react irrationally to every fresh setback. You start kicking beer cans, or jumping on them, or jumping on your hat. You listen to tips from friends and strangers. You bet on races you have not rated and on horses you have never heard of. You try to get out on the last in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide or wherever. You cut your bets or, worse still, thinking your bad run is certain to end, you increase your bets and try to recover all losses. You start betting with frightened money and end up with terrified money or no money at all. Drunk with disasters, you stagger from one loosing race to the next. Your nerve goes, your money goes, and finally you go too. You disappear from the race track and never return. You tell people, “No one can beat the races”, and you are right. No one who looses his nerve and his balance can beat anything.

To be a winner, you must be firm and resolute. You must stay cool when losses are mounting even if this means taking a few weeks’ holiday while you recuperate, assess the damage, and prepare a counter attack. You should never bet when your nerve is shaken or your balance upset.
As a punter you have one big advantage over a bookmaker - you can choose the races on which you want to bet. Bookmakers need to have nerves of steel because they have to be on their stands race after race betting on right and wrong races regardless. You should exploit this advantage by concentrating only on the right races. To do this, you need to be, restrained, patient and cautious. At the same time you must not be so restrained, patient and cautious that you never have a bet at all. When the right race comes along, you must bet with courage and confidence.
Most punters are unrestrained rather than restrained, impatient rather than patient, and incautious rather than cautious. The temptation to bet on every race is very strong. It gets tedious watching everyone else betting.

Occasionally - but very occasionally - every race on the programme is a betting proposition. The form patterns are predictable, the class and weight ratings indisputable, and the future ratings as clear as a summer sky at Randwick.
These days I am restrained, patient and cautious. I have learned by long experience that you cannot win them all. I know from costly losses what the wrong races are. I know from profitable wins what the right races are.

“Sufficient knowledge to tell when to bet, or not to bet, or when to bet heavily, is of paramount importance to every man on the track”.